Steven Romalewski

Winning isn’t everything, even in presidential primaries. When the voting is done in New York next Tuesday night, campaigns, analysts, donors and others will be looking at way more than the results of the horse-race in either party. The delegate count and story-lines coming out of New York, and their effect on the nominating and general election contests that follow, will depend on more than just who won, but where they won, by how much, and why. Did issues matter? Did demographics decide?

On Thursday night, City Limits and Gotham Gazette hosted an expert panel to talk about their expectations and curiosities heading into the surprisingly consequential Empire State primary. Former Congressman Anthony Weiner said the stage was set for a 47-state tsunami for Democrats come November. Christina Greer, an associate professor at Fordham University and author of “Black Ethnics: Race, Immigration, and the Pursuit of the American Dream,” spoke about her concerns that Donald Trump’s ascension was triggering a deeply damaging eruption of racial animus. Baruch School of Public Affairs Dean David Birdsell talked about the unprecedented nature of the Republican race, where “likely voter” models have been rendered nearly useless by the participation of first-time voters in huge numbers. Mark Winston Griffith, a delegate for Bernie Sanders, discussed candidly the mix of hope and misgivings that characterizes his support for the Vermont senator.

And CUNY Mapping Service director Steven Romalewski looked for lessons in history and the map: where Hillary Clinton won and lost in 2008, where Zephyr Teachout threatened Andrew Cuomo in 2014 and where Bill de Blario dominated in 2013. See below for the full presentation. And be sure to check out the video clips on our Facebook page.

The 2016 New York State Primary: What demographics and voting trends tell us