Opinion: The Housing Lottery Promised Stability. Then The Rent Went Up.

“For working-class families, seniors, people with disabilities, and fixed-income New Yorkers, those yearly increases can slowly erode the very stability affordable housing is supposed to provide.”

In 20 years at my apartment in Jamaica, Queens, my rent went up five times. Five times in two decades. 

In the less than three years since I moved into a so-called affordable housing lottery apartment, my rent has gone up three times—increasing by $185 since 2023, not including utilities. 

Let that sink in. 

As a tenant living on Social Security Disability income—like many New Yorkers living on fixed incomes, disability benefits, or housing assistance—even gradual rent increases can create growing financial uncertainty. That’s not a footnote. That’s a crisis.

When I was selected through New York City’s Housing Connect lottery in 2023, I believed I had secured more than an apartment. I believed I had secured stability—a chance to finally breathe a little easier in one of the most expensive cities in the country. 

Instead, I learned something many New Yorkers are discovering in real time: affordable housing is only as stable as the policies protecting it. 

That is the contradiction at the center of New York’s housing system. Apartments marketed as affordable and rent-stabilized remain subject to annual increases approved by the New York City Rent Guidelines Board, a nine-member panel appointed by the mayor. For working-class families, seniors, people with disabilities, and fixed-income New Yorkers, those yearly increases can slowly erode the very stability affordable housing is supposed to provide. 

The city’s rent policies are undermining the promise of affordable housing. Under former Mayor Eric Adams, the Rent Guidelines Board approved multiple rent increases on stabilized apartments, raising rents on one-year leases a combined 12 percent over four years. 

So while Housing Connect may provide access to affordable units, the broader system leaves many tenants wondering how affordable those homes will remain over time. For residents who entered the housing lottery believing they had found lasting affordability, those increases did not feel like technical adjustments. They feel like a betrayal. 

How is this affordable housing if rents can increase year after year? How is this stability when tenants are forced to anxiously wait each summer to learn whether the Rent Guidelines Board will raise rents again? 

It can begin to feel like a bait and switch—a system marketed as relief while tenants remain trapped in a cycle of uncertainty, already stretched thin by inflation, medical costs, transportation expenses, and the rising cost of simply living in New York City. 

And this isn’t just my story.

Across New York City, countless lottery tenants are quietly doing the math every year, wondering how much longer they can hold on. A few percentage points may seem minor in policy debates or board meetings, but for people already stretched thin, those increases can mean choosing between groceries, medication, transportation, or rent. 

There is now a glimmer of hope for tenants seeking relief. 

Mayor Zohran Mamdani made a rent freeze central to his campaign, and his administration has now appointed six members to the Rent Guidelines Board. On May 7, the board approved preliminary ranges of 0-2 percent for one-year leases and 0-4 percent for two-year leases—keeping a full freeze on the table for the first time in years. The board is expected to cast its final vote Thursday night.

Mayor Mamdani’s administration has launched a citywide initiative encouraging New Yorkers to organize and share their experiences ahead of the hearings—a sign that tenant voices are finally being recognized as central to the city’s affordability debate. 

But even a rent freeze would only be a pause. 

The larger issue is structural. As long as affordable housing units remain vulnerable to annual increases, many New Yorkers will continue living with uncertainty instead of stability. 

New York needs stronger tenant protections, greater oversight, and leadership willing to treat affordable housing as a long-term commitment—not a year-to-year calculation. 

I’m grateful to have a roof over my head. But gratitude does not require silence. No New Yorker should win the housing lottery and still feel like they’re losing. It’s time for housing policies that truly protect the people they are meant to serve.

Falana Fray is an independent journalist and student based in Queens, New York, who covers the intersection of culture and politics.