Drilling for more oil and gas may not have legs in progressive New York, where local laws bar these efforts. But larger climate goals could suffer a blow.

This past May while Donald Trump was still on the campaign trail, he broke bread with some of the country’s top oil and gas executives at his Mar-a-Lago Club. At the dinner, he asked for $1 billion in donations in exchange for rolling back progressive environmental policies once back in office.

Throughout his campaign, the slogan “Drill, baby, drill,” became a battle cry for increasing the production of petroleum and gas, the very fossil fuels driving climate change.

In some ways, the now president-elect is following through with his promise. Earlier this month, Chris Wright, an oil and gas industry executive, was named head of the U.S. Energy Department.

But choosing New York’s Lee Zeldin for the top position at the nation’s main climate authority, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), felt to many in the environmental community like a departure from Trump’s fossil fuel expansion agenda.

For one, Zeldin, a former Army lawyer and congressman from Long Island, has relatively little experience in the field of climate. During his four terms in Congress, Zeldin was mostly known for his work on veterans’ issues and supporting Israel. 

And when push came to shove on the environment, he worked with local advocates to protect Long Island from Trump’s plans to open up the coastline to offshore oil and gas drilling in 2018. Zeldin was one of 12 Republicans who voted in favor of a ban on drilling off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, too. He even called giving Americans’ access to clean air and water “a very important issue” that deserves bipartisan support.

“The question is: will he remember who he is or will he become a foot soldier for the administration?” asks Adrienne Esposito, executive director for the Citizens Campaign for the Environment. Esposito met with Zeldin dozens of times throughout his political career in New York, which she recalls started when he was a county legislator.

Environmentalists also express doubt that Trump will be able to move forward with his “drill, baby, drill” agenda in New York and elsewhere. New York has a ban on fracking that can’t be reversed through a presidential executive order, and experts say that because the world’s demand for oil is uncertain right now, it may not make sense financially for oil companies to drill more anyway.

But if Trump does make due on his promise to roll back Biden-era environmental policies, New York is bound to feel ripple effects. The biggest blow could come in the form of repealing standards for cutting back on climate change-inducing tailpipe emissions from cars. 

The move could hinder New York’s plans to go electric, stalling already delayed progress laid out by the state’s landmark climate law, which requires 70 percent of the state’s power come from renewable energy by 2030. 

‘Drill, baby, drill’

While stories of protecting Long Island’s coastline are fresh on some environmentalists’ minds, Lee Zeldin has also stood in opposition to climate policies that seek to combat global warming.

He painted New York State’s decision to shift to clean energy by barring newly constructed buildings from installing gas hookups as extreme. 

And he reportedly came closer than any Republican candidate to snatching the governorship when he ran against Kathy Hochul in 2022, campaigning on the promise to overturn the state’s ban on fracking.

Last month, after accepting Trump’s nomination to head the EPA, Zeldin vowed in an interview with Fox News to use the agency to increase the United State’s “energy dominance,” a phrase Trump uses to refer to his push to develop more oil and gas.

“Zeldin has a clear record of being pro-fracking,” said Alex Beauchamp, northern region director at Food & Water Watch. 

“But in my eyes, legally, it would be basically impossible for the federal government to force New York to rescind the fracking ban. Steps have been taken [already] to codify it or to strengthen it over time,” he added.

Trump may run into other roadblocks on the national front too, energy experts say. 

Global demand for fossil fuels has dropped and the price of oil in particular is low, thanks to a host of factors including the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the middle east influencing the market. 

“Trump is asking for energy companies to, in essence, act against their best financial interests, because if they drill for more they risk prices falling even lower,” warns Rob Rains, an energy and environmental policy analyst at Washington Analysis, a D.C.-based research firm.

But Rains admits that the EPA does hold the power to ease environmental regulations, including those meant to encourage the shift to electric vehicles nation-wide.

Earlier this month, the American Petroleum Association, one of the country’s most influential groups representing the fossil fuel industry, put out a wish list of what they hope to see from the next administration. 

Their first ask: repeal the EPA’s tailpipe emissions rule. The regulation, which sets more protective standards for light-duty and medium-duty vehicles, was put in place to reduce the harmful air pollutants cars emit and encourage the transition to cleaner electric vehicles.  

“We have been heading down a path of extreme regulations threatening everything from our choice of home appliances to the cars we drive,” API President and CEO Mike Sommers wrote in a letter sent to the president-elect and quoted on their website.

“As an industry committed to American prosperity, we stand ready to work with you and Congress to reverse course and advance a robust vision for securing America’s energy dominance,” he added.

But in New York, where transportation is the second-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions state-wide, environmental groups say dropping those standards could have a negative effect.

In fact, it could impact New York’s ability to meet the ambitious goals outlined by its Climate Leadership and Protection Act (CLCPA). The state is already behind in reaching the targets outlined in the law, including a requirement to mostly phase out the use of fossil fuels. 

“I think you just have to start to consider a scenario where the federal government is less of a partner in achieving these goals,” said Robert Freudenberg, vice president of the Regional Plan Association’s energy and environmental programs.

Freudenberg says that means there will be fewer guidance from the national government on how to carry out the transition off of fossil fuels, less federal programs to encourage that shift and fewer funds making its way to New York.

“So I think we have to look local, right? We have to see what we can do as a state or as a city with possibly less of a partner in the federal government,” Freudenberg added.

He and other environmental groups are still hopeful that New York will double down on protecting the progressive climate policies it has passed into law.

“Any effort to hamper or roll back progress that we’ve been making on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, would not be welcome here in New York,” he said.

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