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“In the last four years, much has changed about Latino voting trends, shaped by Donald Trump’s re-emergence, the aftermath of COVID, the exodus of many Latinos and the arrival of others, and dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party.”
Four years ago, I wrote a series for Gotham Gazette on the all-important Latino vote in New York City and the 2021 citywide elections. I am grateful to City Limits for the opportunity to provide a new series on how Latinos can shape the 2025 races.
In the last four years, much has changed about Latino voting trends, shaped by Donald Trump’s re-emergence, the aftermath of COVID, the exodus of many Latinos and the arrival of others, and dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party. No doubt new developments and insights about Latino voting patterns will emerge in the run up to, and the results of, the 2025 municipal elections.
The 2024 elections were instructive. Support for Trump among Latinos increased, though not at the scale some have suggested. The largest increase in Trump support came from Latinos in Queens. Voter registration numbers have declined among Latinos over the last few years, and voter participation likewise since 2018.
What this is likely to mean for the 2025 citywide elections is not only a guess. We already know that:
- With over 1 million of us registered in the City of New York, Latinos comprise 23 percent of the entire voting population.
- Within the Democratic Party, Latinos now exceed 700,000 voters.
- Despite diminishing voting participation, Latinos may constitute 18 percent of the possible primary electorate this June. In the 2021 mayoral election, Latinos comprised 17 percent of the primary electorate, and it was my contention that Latinos helped get Eric Adams over the top in a multiple field race.
- In specific Council districts, Latinos can help increase Latino political representation.
- Latinos could make the difference in the Bronx borough president’s race.
In the following weeks and months, I welcome your company, questions, and comments as I explore these dynamics in this series on the Latino vote in the 2025 municipal elections.
Have questions about the Latino vote in NYC’s elections this year? Send them to [email protected] with the subject line “Latino Vote 2025.”
Eli Valentin is a former Gotham Gazette contributor and currently serves as assistant dean of graduate and leadership studies at Virginia Union University. He lives in New York with his family.
