Latino Voters and the Political Earthquake in New York

“To the Democratic and Republican establishments, especially those gearing up for re-election next year, I would say: pay attention to the Mamdani campaign. It seems many Latinos are, and they will certainly make their opinions heard at the ballot box again.”

This analysis is part of a series of columns exploring the role of the Latino vote in the city’s 2025 municipal elections. Read more here, here and here.

Elections that produce seismic shifts in the political landscape are rare. With the shocking win last week of Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist assemblyman from Queens, New York experienced one of these shifts. Indeed, Mamdani’s victory in the Democratic primary is better understood as an unexpected political earthquake.

Few expected Mamdani to win. Many observers wondered whether he could pull together the type of coalition needed to defeat a longtime political powerhouse. Could he expand the electorate? Could he energize younger voters? Could he appeal to and turn out low-propensity voters like Asians and Latinos?

Apparently Mamdani did all the above. And interestingly, it appears that he has won a plurality of the Latino vote.

That in itself is a feat. Conventional wisdom held that Mamdani could not peel away enough Latino voters from Andrew Cuomo, considering that Latinos have always viewed the former governor favorably.

Amidst all of his troubles, Latinos remained loyal to a governor they felt had responded to many of their needs. When Hurricane Maria ravaged the island of Puerto Rico, Cuomo stepped up by coordinating flights to deliver goods and emergency services assistance. Likewise his responses to crises in the Dominican Republic. Latinos remember such efforts.

So, what gives? How and where did Mamdani manage to win a crucial voting bloc that Cuomo needed?

The New York Times has actually provided an excellent breakdown of the election results by a number of demographics, including ethnicity, based on U.S. Census and City Planning data. 

I have examined the preliminary first round votes of the mayoral candidates within Latino-majority election districts. These districts were identified using the L2 voter file, which not only draws on Census data but numerous other sources to identify ethnic information as precisely as possible. 

With this data, I have lasered in on election districts that are more than 60 percent Latino, so as to avoid the complications of deciphering Latino voters in election districts that are more diverse. (Until voter files are updated, we will not have a complete picture of the magnitude of this election. Thus, all current analyses, including this one, demand caution.)

Here’s what I found:

In Manhattan, Mamdani outdid Cuomo by just over 2,000 votes. His greatest success was in Washington Heights and Inwood, the 72nd Assembly district. Mamdani lost the Latino-majority election districts in the Lower East Side by 151 votes. He won the super-majority Latino election districts in East Harlem (68th Assembly District) by 92 votes and the 71st Assembly district, covering parts of Hamilton Heights, Harlem, and lower Washington Heights, by 657 votes. Remember, I am only examining super-majority Latino election districts, so these results do not refer to the overall vote in these respective districts.

Notably, most of the elected officials in these areas did not endorse Mamdani, including Congressman Adriano Espaillat, whose district encompasses all these neighborhoods. Only State Sen. Robert Jackson and Councilmember Carmen De La Rosa endorsed the presumptive Democratic nominee (I am not factoring in those elected to party positions who made their own endorsements in the race).

The Bronx tells a different story with the Latino vote. Cuomo handily beat Mamdani in most of the majority-Latino sections in the Bronx, which is the only majority-Latino borough in the city. In the South Bronx, 51 percent of voters went for Cuomo. In the Kingsbridge, Fordham, and Belmont neighborhoods, 51 percent of voters went for Cuomo and 39 percent for Mamdani. 

Of the Soundview, Longwood and Hunts Point neighborhoods, 57 percent of votes went for Cuomo. Mamdani held on to 31 percent. And we see similar results in the Morris Heights, University Heights, and Tremont neighborhoods. In the Bronx, too, Cuomo earned the lion’s share of endorsements from Latino elected officials (State Sen. Gustavo Rivera bucked the trend, strongly supporting Mamdani). This election proves once again that most endorsements are meaningless and very few endorsers have the capacity to move the needle on any given election.

Moving to Brooklyn, I note that Mamdani won these super-majority Latino election districts over Cuomo by a total of 1,664 votes. Mamdani’s largest support was in Sunset Park (51st Assembly District), Bushwick, and Williamsburg (53rd Assembly District). Because of the stark gentrification of these neighborhoods, especially the latter two, I have been especially careful to identify those precincts which are 60 percent-plus Latino. In the 54th Assembly District, covering parts of East New York and Cypress Hills, Mamdani bested Cuomo by 21 votes.

The Queens results in Latino neighborhoods present us with even more fascinating realities. I looked at the 60 percent-plus Latino election districts in Corona, Elmhurst, East Elmhurst, Ozone Park and Ridgewood. Mamdani won those precincts by 1,151 votes. While these numbers may appear similar to results in Manhattan and Brooklyn, they show an interesting dynamic in Latino voting patterns, particularly in Queens.

My analysis of the presidential election in Queens showed an increase in support for Donald Trump, though this increase was not as pronounced as some thought. Of all Latino neighborhoods in the city,  Queens saw the most significant decline in support for the Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris. Recalling this very recent history makes the current mayoral primary results in these neighborhoods seem erratic. How could Latinos vote for a democratic socialist after voting for the conservative authoritarianism of Donald Trump?

If anything, these results remind us yet again of what has now become almost a cliché: Latinos are not homogenous. We do not fit any once-size-fits-all formulations. Latinos are quite diverse in cultural variety, countries of origin, language nuances, and political philosophies. This can also be seen at the ballot box. In fact, we can see it in this election—most Bronx Latinos went with Cuomo, while a plurality of Latinos in other boroughs went with Mamdani.

Moreover, Latino support for Mamdani, particularly in Queens, should help us understand that the increase in support for Trump in 2024 was not necessarily an indication of an ideological rightward shift. What these results may be telling us is that economic populist messaging resonates deeply with Latino audiences. And this should come as no surprise. It surely was not a surprise for Mamdani. Mamdani, a truly generational political talent, has understood quite well the plight of struggling communities, like Latinos, whose quotidian realities evoke continuing economic anxieties.

A recent Columbia Center on Poverty and Social Policy and Robin Hood report shows that Latinos are the poorest ethnic group in New York City, followed closely by Asian and then Black New Yorkers. It should come as no surprise, then, that Mamdani, who lasered in on affordability issues, would earn the support of a plurality of Latinos, and win the Asian vote. Mamdani’s support among Black New Yorkers was also higher than some anticipated.

It should also come as no surprise that most Latinos do not see fare-free buses, no cost childcare, and freezing rents as a vice. These are issues that Latinos care deeply about because their very livelihoods depend on all these important, day-to-day matters.

To the Democratic and Republican establishments, then, especially those gearing up for re-election next year, I would say: pay attention to the Mamdani campaign. It seems many Latinos are, and they will certainly make their opinions heard at the ballot box again.

Eli Valentin is a former Gotham Gazette contributor and currently serves as assistant dean of graduate and leadership studies at Virginia Union University. He lives in New York with his family.

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